While we witnessed unipolarity (The USA leading as one Pole), after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the world seems to be engaged in a pattern of Few Poles (Multipolarity) competing for sole Hegemony. My main described situation has to do with China mainly, but I am touching on other counties which have similar uncertainties, intentions, capabilities, and therefore are being forced to change direction, in terms of coercive sanctions, or even wars, due to their hidden agenda arsenal of intentions and motives.
Strategy which is closely related to the concept of power can be illustrated with USA and China, where China has adopted a controlling strategy near Mischief Reef in the South China Sea. There can be no talk of consensual strategy as there are real threats by china such as indicated in link 1 attached, and it must be noted that the incident took place while flying in international airspace. In this case, China succeeded in influencing the target’s strategic choices, namely the USA who is only observing while China has already finalized a fact long considered done.
Of note, is the fact that China’s threat was deliberate, and having a purpose. We are dealing here with coercion exercised by China towards, not only the USA but all its neighbors. See map attached in link number 1 under references. U.S. military aircraft, came the challenge, delivered in English in a harsh staccato. You have violated our China sovereignty and infringed on our security and our rights. You need to leave immediately and keep far out. While, China intentions are well, as to establishing facts (Sea pictures attached of Finished Facts), on that disputed area, the capabilities it is building, imply and send a signal of aggressive behavior, as Japan did in the Second world War. China is, preparing to be the sole power, at least in that region of the world, therefore, threatening all its neighbors. Here is some historical background to place the dispute in the right context for us.” The disputes include the islands, reefs, banks, and other features of the South China Sea, including the Spratly Islands, Paracel Islands, Scarborough Shoal, and various boundaries in the Gulf of Tonkin “. These establishing of facts by China do overlap with the exclusive economic zone claims of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam.” China is not the first Nation to claim the Island.As to history facts as to why this disputed areas has tactical, and strategic advantaged : ” During the World War II the Empire of Japan used the islands in the South China Sea region for various military purposes and claimed that the islands were not claimed by anyone when the Imperial Japanese Navy took control of them. Historical accounts note that at least France had controlled some of the features in the region during the 1930s. After the war, Imperial Japan had to let go of the control of the islands in the South China Sea in the 1951 Treaty of San Francisco, which however did not specify the new status of the islands. Peopleґs Republic of China made various claims to the islands during the 1951 treaty negotiations and the 1958 First Taiwan Strait Crisis.” By using such threats as described, China is using deterrence or coercive diplomacy to submit the USA as a major world power, and other countries to its controlling strategy, despite the fact that these other countries shown in the map below, have claims on this disputed territory as well. China is making clear to anyone challenging it’s controlling strategy, what is considered undesirable and then waiting for their adversaries to act. China will only act, if the act it considers forbidden and has been violated, such as the US aircraft keeps flying over the disputed Mischief Reef in the south sea. Threats by China escalate to threats of wars, as evident by the following conversation which took place between Philippines president Duterte and the Chinese president “During a meeting between the two leaders in Beijing in May 2017, the subject turned to whether the Philippines would seek to drill for oil in a part of the South China Sea claimed by both countries. Duterte said he was given a blunt warning by China’s president.” [Xi’s] response to me [was], We’re friends, we don’t want to quarrel with you, we want to maintain the presence of warm relationship, but if you force the issue, we’ll go to war, Duterte recounted.” “The United States of America must remain the strongest military power in the world by a wide margin. “It should be willing to use force-even preventively, if need be”. This can be accomplished by the United States of America leading this coalition of countries, and supporting the countries involved in this dispute, by showing mighty military presence in the South China Sea. The same behavior that USA is conducting towards Iran in the strait of Hurmuz. On the other hand, Iran keeps threatening America as follows: “America… is sending two warships to the region. If they commit the slightest stupidity, we will send these ships to the bottom of the sea along with their crew and planes using two missiles or two new secret weapons,” General Morteza Qorbani, an adviser to Iran’s military command, told Miza”America should also endeavor to change the regime in Iran, despite continuous threats from Iran that they have secret weapons, and fast racing boats equipped with missiles to attack Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier currently in Strait of Hormuz. The same coercive strategy should also be used with North Korea by conducting military drills with the South Korean army to deter and make clear to North Korea that the harms and costs involved, and inflicted upon them and their economy, should it come to a war, would make any clash, extremely devastating for North Korea. after all it was done in 1953(see link number 7 under references). Another example is U.S and North Korea, where the Trump administration used coercive diplomacy was effective in bringing North Korea to the negotiating table at the June 2018 landmark summit in Singapore. “Such an application of coercive diplomacy consisted of a tacit ultimatum and, upon securing North Korea’s desire to negotiate, verbal assurances of future positive inducements. A tacit ultimatum incorporates a clear demand on the opponent; a sense of urgency for compliance without setting an explicit time limit; and a credible punitive threat to influence an opponent (George, 2015, p. 108). The Trump administration used the coercive diplomacy with North Korea in a skillful manner using the following variables: 1. Demand on the opponent 2. generation of a sense of urgency for compliance with the demand 3. Punitive threat for noncompliance, and finally threats of Fire and Fury, if North Korea will not comply with U.S demand. North Korea is keeping us in the dark with ambiguous symbolism, such that we need to look at the other mind problem, not knowing their intentions, motives and their capabilities. For now, North Korea and U.S are engaged in threatening each other, as the following citation shows. “I think North Korea has typically responded to threats with threats, to provocations with provocations, said Kelsey Davenport, director for nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association. In part, North Korea is responding to the dangerous and bellicose rhetoric of President Trump. The U.S also used many sanctions against North Korea such as ” Executive Order 13722 of March 15, 2016 Blocking Property of the Government of North Korea and the Workers’ Party of Korea, and Prohibiting Certain Trans-actions With Respect to North Korea.